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Ethiopian dam upsets Egypt, whilst China plays a difficult game

Ethiopian dam upsets Egypt, whilst China plays a difficult game

Ethiopia last week opened its mega dam on the River Nile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The launch has sparked a tense diplomatic battle between Ethiopia and Egypt, with Cairo denouncing it as “an unlawful unilateral act” and protesting to the United Nations Security Council. During an inauguration ceremony on Tuesday (9 September) Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described the US$5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a “symbol of Ethiopian unity and national achievement". Several regional leaders, including Kenyan President William Ruto and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, attended the event. Egypt, whose life has historically centred around the River Nile, believes the dam will threaten its water supply and cause shortages. Following the inauguration, Cairo warned that it reserved the right to take all measures provided for under international law and the UN Charter to “defend the existential interests of its people”. Sudan, has also raised concerns about dam safety and the risk of uncoordinated water releases.
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 UN General Assembly vote highlights Israel's isolation

UN General Assembly vote highlights Israel's isolation

Applause rang out in the UN General Assembly Hall on Friday as countries endorsed a declaration on the peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine and implementation of the two-State solution with Israel.  The New York Declaration is the outcome of an international conference held in July at UN Headquarters, organized by France and Saudi Arabia, which resumes later this month. The General Assembly comprises all 193 UN Member States and 142 countries voted in favour of a resolution backing the document. Israel voted against it, alongside nine other countries – Argentina, Hungary, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga and the United States – while 12 nations abstained. The vote highlights the current Israeli international isolation as a result of its current policies. Prior to the vote, French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont recalled that the New York Declaration “lays out a single roadmap to deliver the two-State solution”. This involves an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, release of all hostages held there, and the establishment of a Palestinian State that is both viable and sovereign. The roadmap further calls for the disarmament of Hamas and its exclusion from governance in Gaza, normalization between Israel and the Arab countries, as well as collective security guarantees.
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NATO States remain on Heightened Alert as Russia and Belarus Launch Military Drills

NATO States remain on Heightened Alert as Russia and Belarus Launch Military Drills

On Friday (12 September), Russia and Belarus commenced large-scale joint military exercises under the name “Zapad 2025,” in operations that have triggered concern among NATO members along the alliance’s eastern frontier. The manoeuvres begin only days after Poland accused Moscow of violating its airspace with an unprecedented number of drones, intensifying tensions across the region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the purpose of Zapad 2025 is to enhance the skills of commanders and staff, improve cooperation, and conduct field training among regional and allied troop groupings. The Kremlin insists the drills were planned well in advance of the drone incident on Wednesday (10 September) involving Poland.
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Israel’s strikes in Yemen kill at least thirty-five people

Israel’s strikes in Yemen kill at least thirty-five people

On Wednesday (10 September), Israeli jets targeted Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, as well as al-Jawf province. Houthi authorities reported that there are at least 35 dead and 131 wounded, although later figures suggested 46 fatalities and 165 people injured. Strikes in Sanaa’s al-Tahrir neighbourhood damaged residential areas, a medical facility, and the national museum, while in al-Jawf, government compounds were hit. The damage to civilian infrastructure has drawn widespread condemnation, with UNESCO warning of irreparable losses to cultural heritage.

Focus on the South Caucasus

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Analysis
Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Despite disillusionment, Pashinyan favourite to win crucial 2026 vote in Armenia

Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, down but not out following military defeat and political upheaval, has staked his future on reaching what would prove to be a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan. But with public trust at an all-time low, disillusionment among the electorate could make this the most unpredictable vote since independence was declared in 1991. Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June 2026, its first regularly scheduled national vote since April 2017. In this analysis for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian argues that "ten months before the vote, the outcome still remains difficult to predict. Though it still seems most likely that the incumbent will win, a great deal will also be determined during the official campaign period itself, and new developments on the ground. If peace with Azerbaijan is finally within reach, and there are signs that this is the case, it will be difficult for voters to reject stability instead of insecurity and the further risk of war. Ultimately, the 2026 election will determine not just who governs Armenia, but whether the country can finally emerge from decades of conflict and semi-regional isolation, or if it is destined to remain trapped by it." He adds, "that might prove enough to sway even reluctant support for Pashinian at the ballot box. The opposition has still yet to offer any viable alternative – or even one at all."
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Opinion
What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.

Monday Commentary

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Monday Commentary
The world is in a mess, but it is not the time to despair or give up

The world is in a mess, but it is not the time to despair or give up

The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, is the world’s most senior civil servant. His words, especially in the last year, have been tense, terse and delivered with a sense of urgency, as he tries to convey to world statesmen, and the world public, the need for urgent, large-scale action to deal with the global problems that seem to be overwhelming the world body. The challenges are enormous, and the response, if it is to be effective, has to be proportionate in size and scope. 
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LINKS Europe holds expert conference in The Hague on political transition in the South Caucasus

LINKS Europe holds expert conference in The Hague on political transition in the South Caucasus

A conference organised in The Hague by LINKS Europe Foundation brought together experts and activists from the South Caucasus, the European Union and beyond to discuss the current state of political transition in the region. The gathering gave particular attention to the European Union's evolving role in the region amidst rapidly changing domestic and regional dynamics as well as Türkiye's influence as a regional power.
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Opinion
Opinion: People-to-People Contact Remains Absent in Armenia–Azerbaijan Normalisation

Opinion: People-to-People Contact Remains Absent in Armenia–Azerbaijan Normalisation

“You must be glad to be here,” the bartender told my friend, a journalist for a major international media outlet just arrived that evening in Yerevan from Baku via Tbilisi. He raised an eyebrow in response as the bartender slowly poured our drinks. “Why?” he asked, clearly confused. “Because Azerbaijanis are Muslims, they don’t drink, and there are no bars in Baku,” she replied, somehow absolutely convinced that she was correct. The exchange was almost comical, but revealed something deeper. Three decades of conflict had turned former neighbours into strangers. In Tbilisi, where ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis live side by side, it would be met with ridicule. Only last October I sat at a table where the vodka flowed as a local Armenian sang in Azerbaijani and ethnic Azerbaijanis expressed their appreciation in Armenian.
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Opinion
Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Opinion: Turkish policy in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia

Turkey-Russia relations are typically based on compartmentalization. They simultaneously compete and cooperate in various regions, separating the areas in which their interests are overlapping from those where they are in competition. This concept was the base of their competing relations in Syria until the demise of Assad regime in 2024, and mutual interactions in post-Gaddafi Libya.
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Opinion
Armenia and Azerbaijan Dialogue in the context of the European Political Community

Armenia and Azerbaijan Dialogue in the context of the European Political Community

The latest European Political Community summit held in Tirana in May this year, featured Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev at a time when Baku’s period of bad blood with Brussels seems to be over and Europe once again is viewed as a constructive partner. It is not a coincidence that Aliyev briefly met Pashinyan in Tirana for the first time in months and even had a seemingly friendly conversation with French President Macron despite the two countries’ intense feud.

Focus on Central Asia

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News
Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan hold important trilateral meeting

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan hold important trilateral meeting

Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan held important trilateral meetings in the Turkmen city of Turkmenbashi on Friday, 22 August. Joint development of deposits on the Caspian shelf and cooperation in the field of energy exports, including renewable sources, were discussed. The talks came in the framework of the visit to Turkmenistan of President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Shovkat Mirzizoyev of  Uzbekistan who were hosted by the Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (Senate) of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who is a former president and the father of the current president, Serdar Berdimuhamedov. Azerbaijani media noted that during the meeting Uzbekistan hailed a scheme to export green electricity to Europe as promising, while Turkmen officials signaled a new openness to ideas long discussed in Brussels and Ankara, to build a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, a project that has been under discussion for more than 30 years.
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Great power interest in Central Asia putting Uzbekistan in the spotlight

Great power interest in Central Asia putting Uzbekistan in the spotlight

In recent times, Central Asia’s most populous nation has become the centre of attention for great powers, underscored by high level diplomatic contacts with the United States, the hosting of a regional summit with the leadership of the European Union and a high profile visit by hundreds of Russian officials and executives who participated in a trade fair in Tashkent. Western interest centres on Uzbekistan’s abundant reserves of critical minerals and a desire to develop clean energy  sources, including nuclear power. Russia, along with China, has broader trade interests, including developing manufacturing capacity.

Focus on NGOs

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Dozens participate in new Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue process as societies prepare for the signing of historic peace agreement

Dozens participate in new Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue process as societies prepare for the signing of historic peace agreement

The governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently agreed the text of a historic peace agreement that ends years of animosity and warfare. The agreement is expected to be signed soon. LINKS Europe, which has a long history of engagement with the process of peace in the region, recently launched a new Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue format in the framework of the European Union's EU4Peace initiative. In the last two weeks dozens of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, including academics, students, civil society activists, journalists and other professionals, many of them young, were involved. The work is organised in five thematic groups focusing on peace and security, connectivity, environment, governance and gender and equality and in phase 2 of the project, which has just ended, around fifty participants took part in in-person and online meetings, and more than twenty others were involved indirectly. The Chairpersons of the five thematic groups met in Vilnius, 3-6 July to launch the third phase of the program. The five thematic groups are now working on separate reports, which are expected to be finished in November and presented to the two governments and other stakeholders. The reports will outline a vision, up to 2040.
LINKS Europe

commonspace.eu is an activity of LINKS Europe, an independent foundation based in The Hague, The Netherlands. We focus on issues related to European peace and security, Europe's neighbouring regions, including Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia; North Africa and the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. LINKS Europe is committed to contributing to a better future by increasing understanding of complex foreign policy issues, by promoting dialogue and confidence-building as tools for helping to resolve conflict, and by engaging citizens in the process of building peace and security on the basis of solidarity and mutual respect. Through commonspace.eu, we aim to provide insights and analysis on different topics in our area of interest and a platform for diverse opinions.

Read LINKS Europe's work programme for the two-year period 2024-2025 here